These long-term trajectories will be determined Perimeter state and (v) empire dissolution or state fragmentation. Help us examine this second issue, namely the possible contours of a failed orįragile Ethiopian state over the medium or longer term.Īre five (overlapping) scenarios of state fragility, failure or collapse: (i) stateĬontraction (ii) state disassembly (iii) state inversion (iv) a security Paper draws on Ethiopia’s history as well as parallels with other countries, to ![]() There is the longer-term issue of what a protracted stateĬollapse might mean. There is the short-term prospect of a state crisis, notably turmoil in ![]() The military collapse of the Ethiopian National Defense Force, it is essentialįor Ethiopians and international partners to assess what state collapse might Collapse in Ethiopia cannot be ruled out.
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